Search for: All records

Pairwise host–parasite relationships are typically embedded in broader networks of ecological interactions, which have the potential to shape parasite evolutionary trajectories. Understanding this ‘community context’ of pathogen evolution is vital for wildlife, agricultural and human systems alike, as pathogens typically infect more than one host—and these hosts may have independent ecological relationships. Here, we introduce an eco-evolutionary model examining ecological feedback across a range of host–host interactions. Specifically, we analyse a model of the evolution of virulence of a parasite infecting two hosts exhibiting competitive, mutualistic or exploitative relationships. We first find that parasite specialism is necessary for inter-host interactions to impact parasite evolution. Furthermore, we find generally that increasing competition between hosts leads to higher shared parasite virulence while increasing mutualism leads to lower virulence. In exploitative host–host interactions, the particular form of parasite specialization is critical—for instance, specialization in terms of onward transmission, host tolerance or intra-host pathogen growth rate lead to distinct evolutionary outcomes under the same host–host interactions. Our work provides testable hypotheses for multi-host disease systems, predicts how changing interaction networks may impact virulence evolution and broadly demonstrates the importance of looking beyond pairwise relationships to understand evolution in realistic community contexts. 

There is increasing interest in the role that evolution may play in current and future pandemics, but there is often also considerable confusion about the actual evolutionary predictions. This may be, in part, due to a historical separation of evolutionary and medical fields, but there is a large, somewhat nuanced body of evidence-supported theory on the evolution of infectious disease. In this review, we synthesize this evolutionary theory in order to provide a framework for clearer understanding of the key principles. Specifically, we discuss the selection acting on zoonotic pathogens' transmission rates and virulence at spillover and during emergence. We explain how the direction and strength of selection during epidemics of emerging zoonotic disease can be understood by a three Ts framework: trade-offs, transmission, and time scales. Virulence and transmission rate may trade-off, but transmission rate is likely to be favoured by selection early in emergence, particularly if maladapted zoonotic pathogens have ‘no-cost’ transmission rate improving mutations available to them. Additionally, the optimal virulence and transmission rates can shift with the time scale of the epidemic. Predicting pathogen evolution, therefore, depends on understanding both the trade-offs of transmission-improving mutations and the time scales of selection.